2009 Water Watchers Worry Free

Holding steady.

Following a big snow year in 2007-2008 that saw Lake Powell water levels stage a big turnaround, there’s enough snow in the high country to insure the lake won’t give back the ground it made last year, and may even increase depths a bit.

The water year, which starts in October, got off to a dismal start with October and November snowpack numbers far below normal. But just as water watchers started bracing for a disappointing year, the snows started falling in December.

January and February snows were below normal but the strong December and some March snow left most Colorado basins at about the 100% of normal level for the year.

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Forecasts call for an April to July runoff of 7.8 million acre-feet (98% of average). Based on this forecast, upstream reservoir operations and predicted Lake Powell releases, the Bureau of Reclamation estimates Lake Powell will reach a high water mark of 3,642.48 feet above sea level. That’s a few feet higher than last year when lake levels increased a whopping 50 feet.

A level of 3,642 feet is 48 feet below pre-drought 1999 lake-capacity levels.

Water levels holding steady is welcome news to recreationalists and water managers who have been battling a prolonged drought since year 2000.

In the summer of 1999, Lake Powell was essentially full. Five dismal water years followed with unregulated inflows totaling 62% of normal in 2000, 59% in 2001, 25% in 2002, 51% in 2003 and 49% in 2004. Lake Powell water dropped through this five-year period to a frightening level of only 33% of capacity, which was the lowest level since 1969 when the dam was only six years old.

Water conditions improved in 2005 when inflow was 105% of average. The lake level that year rose 31 feet.

Dry conditions returned in 2006 when inflow was only 71% of average. In 2007, runoff was only 68% of average.

Even after the prolonged dry spell when lake levels dropped to about 100 feet below capacity, the lake was still 450 feet deep at the dam.

When 50 feet was added to lake levels last year, fans of Lake Powell pointed out the dam functioned just as it should. It weathered one of the worst drought periods on record and is beginning to recover.

Lake Powell is 186 miles long and has 1,986 miles of shoreline. It took 17 years to fill Lake Powell.

Throughout the Upper Colorado drainage, spring conditions are expected to fill reservoirs to levels seen last year. Spring runoff river flows should follow predictable “normal” patterns based on snowpack figures.